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Latest on Dreier vs. Warner
By Centinel | May 1, 2008
David Dayen at Calitics rounds up the latest on the Warner/Dreier race:
2. CA-26. Last month: 2. Incumbent: David Dreier. Challenger: Russ Warner. PVI #: R+4. % Dem. turnout: 50.2. DCCC targeted. On the financial front, Warner came close to raising as much as Dreier in the 1st quarter ($136,000 to $110,000), but Dreier still has a big well of cash to draw from. So the key for Warner is to find and exploit areas of weakness. One of them is health care. Warner vowed to forego the Congressional health care package until his constituents are fully covered - a very smart tactic that forces Dreier to confront the issue. He also used the anxiety around the housing crisis to note that Dreier took $12,000 in contributions from members of Countrywide Financial while voting against aid for homeowners. This is particularly salient given that Countrywide was basically looking past lying on applications in order to drive people who couldn’t afford it into risky loans. For his part, Dreier is trying to pin high gas prices on Democrats, when he’s voted time and again against reining in record oil company profits and removing their subsidies. Warner is running a pretty smart campaign thus far, and clearly Dreier knows he’s in for a fight.
Meh. I still have yet to see evidence, like polling perhaps, that would indicate whether Dreier is actually facing a serious challenge. Color me unimpressed until Warner starts busting out some numbers.
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May 1st, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Dreier has too much money and is blasting all voters there with mail every month. I have a friend who lives in Claremont and he regularly sees Dreier ramp up mailers before the election with a special issue based flyer every week. Contrast that to Napolitano for whom I am lucky to hear from once a year. Cynthia Matthews was the best shot to get rid of Dreier, with the John & Ken factor, but she was never considered a serious candidate. I heard someone who saw Warner speak and he was not very impressive. He focused on Dreier’s wrongs without discussing how he would tackle the War, gas prices, etc. What’s your health care plan? Stance on a foreclosure bailout? Exactly.
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:01 am
I have to agree. Warner seems long on opposition and short on propositions. There’s a lot of areas where I disagree with Dreier, but I’m not willing to vote for someone else purely on the basis of that disagreement. You have to offer something constructive in its place.
Of course, not being represented by Dreier, I’m not voting for him, but you get what I’m saying…
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:57 am
Note the spin here — Warner raised more. The writer mention’s Dreier’s overall advantage, without going into the multi-million-dollar specifics.
And Dreier has a huge name ID advantage, after massive spending on the election four years ago. Note that Warner ran — and lost — the Dem primary two years ago to that same Cynthia Matthews.
I think this one’s safely in the R column.
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:19 am
According to the DCCC and Daily Kos blog, the 26th District is targeted because Dreier is never in the district and the fact that Warner has raised over half a million and from what I hear has an office in Monrovia and working hard.
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
That would not be Publius, co-author of this blog…in case anyone was confused.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
I’m just wondering when the hypocrisy of Drier’s ‘lifestyle choice’ and his votes will catch up with him. No one likes a liar.
May 29th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
I was at the Warner headquarters a week ago and they had 8+ phonebankers and people out canvassing. I think he has a good chance. This go around his son, Greg, is going door to door, calling, etc. I just remember him being home for the election in 2006. His staff mentioned a poll but I think they’re holding off on releasing it until after the primary.
And Dreier’s mailers, There’s a picture of him with a paint roller up against a wall to paint over graffiti. It’s obviously staged… there’s no paint on it or the woman’s in the picture.
Russ has my support.